A Working Model of The Future
Yesterday is gone forever and tomorrow is impossible to predict. Both the past and the future seem vanishingly faint and ghostly, in fact barely visible at all, when compared to the earthy solidity of this minute.
Yet virtually all of us, with the exception of newborn infants, operate with some image of the future. It is one of the signs of being adult that we can predict what is likely to happen, and make decisions in order to make things happen, based on our understanding of past events. We can't function at all well unless we can retain some memory of the past and can imagine the likely future.
In a famous experiment many years ago, a group of little children were given the choice of having one marshmellow immediately, or being given two marshmellows if they could wait till later. Some kids understood the principle of delayed gratification for higher rewards, and so they waited. Others with less impulse control went for the immediate advantage. Those who could wait were found to do so much better in later life. They were better able to study, practice and work towards future goals. The others just went for the cash at hand (and probably indulged in risky sexual behaviour as well).
To have an good working model of the future is a predictor for long-term happiness. On the other hand, people who sacrifice too much for the future may never live to enjoy it. The mortgage, the post-graduate studies, the goal of retirement can easily suck all the blood out of the present, and turn it into an antichamber to nothing. It's all a matter of balance.
The future is never more than an elusive, ever-changing mental image, but it shapes the present nonetheless. Most of us wouldn't go to work today, for example, if we thought we were going to die tomorrow. Our image of the future may be vague or clear. It may be well-grounded or full of fantasy. We may ignore the future out of fear or laziness, and try to "live for the present", or we may meticulously plot out the possibilities. Whatever our image of the future happens to be, it influences us, consciously or unconsciously, whether we like it or not.
The future can very scary. If we've been around for long enough, we know that catastrophic illness and other disasters can happen to anyone at any age. Years ago I saw a young woman who had been diagnosed and successfully operated on for a brain tumour, all in the space of six weeks. Nonetheless, she was terribly distressed. She repeatedly asked me "But I will live for the next forty or fifty years, won't I?" I couldn't reassure her. Her bubble of invulnerability had been popped forever.
We can't know the future in any detail, but we can get a much better understanding of the way we picture it. Firstly, what kind of future are we talking about? We know the Earth will eventually plunge into the sun, but none of us worry about that. Similarly, we hardly need to worry about life on Earth. Even if we trigger off a nuclear holocaust, millions of life forms are bound to survive to repopulate the planet. As we know from past cosmic disasters, life itself is virtually indestructible, once it gets a foothold.
We can get concerned about mankind, however. The future of our species looks ever more fragile despite all our knowledge and power, and yet even this matter seems unimaginable. To be honest, the future only grabs our attention when we consider how will affect us personally in the foreseeable years ahead. In effect, the future for me only extends for another few decades, until I die.
To plan for the future involves evaluating a host of variables, and guessing how they will interact over time. We'll never get it exactly right, but we can make a pretty good go of it. Some things are certainties (ageing, death, taxes); some are near certainties (sickness, global warming); some are plausible possibilities (financial success, happiness, catastrophic illness or accidents, war); some are conceivable but unlikely (fame, enlightenment, slavery, sudden death).
Furthermore our personal future is very dependent on the way we have behaved in the past. We are creatures of habit. We find it very reassuring to repeat what we have always done, whether it has been good for us or not. Our character and our natural proclivities are an unavoidable part of the mix.
It can make our heads ache if we try to weigh up all the variables in order to make good judgements. Furthermore when we try to shape the future, our efforts often fail: too many variables. As a result, we commonly give up the effort and slip back into simpler default positions.
Many people adopt a fatalistic approach. "Whatever happens is meant to be. God has a plan. It's all for the best. It's my karma. I can't do anything about it. I was destined to be poor. Whatever will be, will be."
In fact, there is a whole body of spirituality that tries to find cosmic meanings in particular events. "I must have broken my leg because I kicked someone to death in a past life" (not because I fell down a flight of stairs while drunk). This leads to the kind of sanctified helplessness that religious leaders love to see in their followers. A drinking problem can be solved. Bad karma can't, at least not in this lifetime.
Other people ignore the future as much as they can, whether out of indolence or dread. "Eat, drink and be merry, for tomorrow we die." Unfortunately, this guarantees them a miserable future if they live long enough.
Similarly, others ignore the future by slogging away as if they will live forever. They power through insomnia, stress and sickness towards some long-forgotten, every-receding goal. Despite their hard work, they guarantee themselves a future of even more depression, more misery. A lady once came to me for advice after being diagnosed with an advanced cancer. I knew she was a workaholic, so I asked her about her work. "I've thought about cutting it back a little", she said.
Others see the future as a realm of limitless fantasy. "I can be whatever you want to be, if I believe in myself! If Oprah can do it, so can I. Someday my boat will come in. Someday my prince will come." Hope and faith can give an ecstatic high, and may occasionally tip the balance in a positive sense, but fantasy is best in a cheerleader role. It is too unreliable to be the captain in the search for a better life.
Only certain kinds of people have the option of virtually escaping the influence of the future: little children, spiritual seekers, layabouts and hippies, impulsive teenagers, some retirees, and those who are carefree or rich enough to be on perpetual holiday. In another context completely, the chronically ill and elderly may have no future worth considering.
The future is usually an inescapable part of our psychic make-up, and it is important to consider it rationally. We shouldn't ignore it, or give it too much weight, or feel helpless in front of it. Nor should we burden it with irrational hopes. But we can do those things that contribute to a happy, healthy future, even if they don't guarantee it.
It's always our choice how many coffin nails we smoke, how many danish pastries we consume, how many late nights we spend at the office or partying. There's no mystery here. The only difficulty is in making the kind of gut-connection between today's pleasure and tomorrow's hangover that makes a difference to our future behaviour.
The seeds of the future are to be found in the present, and much of it is completely within our control. Whatever happens to us in the years ahead, our best insurance is to be as healthy as we can today, to love the people we are with, to appreciate being alive and to reflect on what we are doing. We can do this haphazardly, as we scramble compulsively from one activity to another, or we can give it the time and space it truly deserves. Love, health, pleasure, and understanding are all worth cultivating on a daily basis. If we give attention to what really matters today, the future will look after itself.